...is interfering with our ability to confindently assay predictions on the condition of the electorate...in case you couldn't tell, I've given up on calling this election. BHO might be sitting on a natural straight, leading in states that would add up to 273 electoral votes, etc. But we're so close to the event that our instruments distort its shape.
If K and John Dickerson are right, the electorate shouldn't groove on the Paris-Britney ad. Not just because it violates the prohibition on infantilization of Barack. But because it's old hat. BHO has been a celebrity for a while, remember? Here's Dickerson:
The “One” video shows a clip of Obama describing how on Election Day, “a light will shine down … you will experience an epiphany, and you will say to yourself, I have to vote for Barack.” You could argue that he wasn’t really being self-deprecating, he was actually cloaking his own Messiah complex in a humorous guise. But either way, he was there before McCain.
Except that the attack is paying dividends...let's ignore the wobbly validity of Rasmussen's "Do you trust X to do Y?" formula. (Saying "I trust Richard Nixon to cover his own ass," is not the same as saying "I trust Richard Nixon." But if you listen to Ras, more Americans "trust McCain on the issues." Not deceptive, just an epistemological leap.) When Americans think of the President fulfulling banal duties such as "negotiating trade agreements," they don't want to see Paris Hilton in his plug-in-hybrid Escalade. No Department of the Interior for you either Ms. Spears. Justin Timberlake may still be a dark horse candidate for Treasury...
AdAge helps us stay grounded -- as if the hailstorm of Rasmussen's reminders didn't convince us already that Americans are quasi-Fascist nativist religious freaks. Aghast, we turn the page for the crosstabs, thinking, Who are these rubes? Where do they congregate? -- the ad functions because it has the crack-like properties of all great advertising. You hang on for the kicker: Obama will raise taxes and you will pay more for oil.
Personally, I think this is a blip in the polls. Walnuts is still like a lunar rover, marooned, barely picking up signals from the home base, travelling a desolate landscape with only Rovites to accompany him...Will BHO take the time to remind voters that his opponent is one mescaline hit away from being Mike Gravel? I'm still waiting for the "This isn't the John McCain I had come to respect. I don't know who to trust anymore..."-spiel...
One final note: Presumably the purpose of the bizarre early attacks on Barack was not to damage him directly, but to broaden the scope of possible attacks. Never mind that BHO is not a Muslim, does not wear a turban, sings the anthem, waves the flag, pledges allegiance to the United States of 'Murkka, etc. The mere fact that the slurs got such wide play, and took so long to debunk means that the little lies can just slip in under the radar. I can hear the moderate tone already: "Look, I know he's not a terrorist. But he will raise the price of gas..."
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