Whoa -- State News Update

Fear not, concerned citizens of both Russia and Syria, your leaders are going through an incredible period of ball-growth...together!

State news in Syria has Medvedev and al-Assad meeting to discuss the violation of treaties and agreements. Perhaps also they will play with their dolls, and have tea.

Prognostic Gospels...

The resulting international backlash when he's found out will provide the perfect opening for Medvedev to demonstrate that he does, indeed, have a sack. Medvedev puts Putin on trial and he's exiled to the United States where he and Dubya do armwrestling for charity in Vegas.

Now, of course, we all know Putin shoots tigers and, by night, fights petty crime in Moscow to make the streets safe for larger crime; so there's little chance Dubya would have anything on him in an armwrestling contest. But now we get word that there's a feeling in certain circles that, maybe, just maybe, one of Medvedev's balls might've dropped?

Really, what are the odds of a surprise run by Medvedev when his term is up and he's expected to just pat the seat for Ol' Vlad like, "Was just keeping warm for you, Tsarov"? How fun would that be? How quickly would he get poisoned?

Frozen conflicts...Putin losing marbles: "I am surprised that you are surprised..."

Is there anyone in the region actually intimidated by Vlad Putin? Poland signed a missile defense agreement at long last. Lithuania's president is a noted hardass (and a serious thinker; here's his speech to the London School of Economics in February). Putin can bluster about countries making themselves into targets, but the biggest thing he/Medvedev have threatened lately is Moldova.

Said Medvedev to the Moldovan president:

After the Georgian leadership lost their marbles, as they say, all the problems got worse and a military conflict erupted [...]

The dispute between Transdniestrian separatists and the Moldovan central government was identified as Second Most Likely to Feel the Putin by Joshua Kucera in Slate:

The conflict in Transdniestria has been frozen for some time, and there's not much at stake in Moldova, but if the situation heated up, the United States and Russia would definitely take opposing sides, and in the post-South Ossetia world, who knows?

Indeed; good news for cartographers, though.

As for losing marbles, Putin now believes that the West arranged for the Georgian aggression in order to boost the McCain candidacy (and to remind McCain what country Putin is from). Here's Putin in the WaPo:

When the CNN correspondent, Matthew Chance, expressed skepticism, Putin argued that the Bush administration faced difficulties in the Middle East and Afghanistan, as well as economic difficulties.

"A small, victorious war is needed," Putin said. "And if you don't succeed, it's possible to shift the blame on us, turn us into the enemy against the backdrop of rah-rah patriotism to rally the country again around certain political forces. I am surprised that you are surprised at what I say. It's obvious."

To summarize: Moldova is the largest thing Putin's willing to threaten; Putin is slowly becoming deranged on CNN. Is there cause for alarm here? To my mind, the best indicator that the past month's media hyperventilation about the New Cold War is meaningless is that David Brooks thinks it's for real: from PBS, after watching BillyClint in Denver:

MARK SHIELDS: [...] People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than the example of our power.

DAVID BROOKS: Not sure Vladimir Putin will be impressed by the power of our example or Ahmadinejad, but it's a nice formulation.

This is the benchmark by which we judge serious foreign policy difficulties: if Brooks is afraid, ignore it. If Brooks is for it, watch out.

By this standard, let us confidently assume that just as Putin has no intention of leaving Ossetia and Abkhazia, he also has no interest in adding a half-dozen wannabe-states to the roster of cranky part-Russian regions. No Nagorno-Karabakh, no second Dagestan, no Transdniestr. Let's see if we can get Putin out of Poti, and stop wetting the bed about What Happens Next...
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Hard Baltics vs. Iron Sphere...

<< Georgia part one

Putin's whole endeavor is to install Moscow-friendly regimes in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, in a paranoid rendition of the US campaign against Serbia. In this version, Russia comes to the rescue of aggrieved Russophile minorities, wages a bombing campaign, and calls actions by the small central government ethnic cleansing. Medvedev's aforementioned background provides the final stroke in the US : Serbia :: Russia : Georgia analogy; the lawyer wants Saakashvili in the Hague.

I can see the Ukraine falling, Saakashvili out of a job, etc., but it seems more likely that Poland and the Baltics will not shit themselves with fear. For one, Putin sounds unhinged, comparing Saakashvili to Saddam Hussein:

"Of course Saddam Hussein had to be hung for destroying some Shia villages. And the current Georgian rulers, who wiped ten Ossetian villages off the face of the Earth in an hour, of course they have to be protected."

Ilves of Estonia said "I am a Georgian"...Lech Kaczynski didn't trust Putin's cease-fire yesterday; today that looks pretty wise, as latest reports have Russians moving out of Gori, deeper into Georgia...

Little Lithuania, whose name was tossed around as an alternate missile defense site, and thus has been put on Putin's shitlist unnecessarily, may prove hard core. A few years ago, Russia cut oil to the Meziekiu Nafta refinery, and then set it on fire.



Lithuanian president Valdas Adamkus, unmoved, hinted that the train to Kaliningrad would be shut down for "political repairs":

"We should guarantee the safety of trains and passengers," he said, according to the Baltic News Service. "Should repairs be needed in order to increase the safety of railway services, I see no reason to heat up political tensions."

Calmer than you are. Shit to this effect has been going on every other year for what seems like all decade. The Baltics respond to economic pressure in kind; they don't escalate. They don't mass troops on the borders of some nether region, incapable of being taunted into a "Who's got the bolshy yarbles?" contest. DS presumes the Iron Sphere will not expand...

Trying to stay calm...
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In Putin's Russia, Minister Primes You!

Widely acknowledged lapdog Dmitiri Medvedev unveiled his vision for Russia's foreign policy going forward. By all accounts, it boils down to "Yeah. What he said."

In addition to the expected expansion of powers for the Tsar--ahem--Prime Ministership, Medvedev's foreign policy vision also apparently emphasizes

...the importance of international law, which should come as no surprise given Medvedev's background as a lawyer, Trenin said.

Saints preserve us! The Russians are lecturing us on international law! No surprise, considering that we're building long-term bases and anti-ballistic missile installations in their own backyard. There are also nods to the burgeoning partnership/co-dependent relationship with the European Union and strengthening other international ties. The good folks over at Foreign Policy's Passport blog sum it up nicely:

Russia is officially operating in the post-American world.

Ah, the multi-polar world. Herein lies another major point Obama has to make plain to the American people: the post-Cold War unipolar world America used to squat atop is no more. While Walnuts rambles on about kicking Russia out of the G8 and complains about Kids These Days with their hippity-hop music, the opportunity exists to at least try to show the American people that this nation need not dominate the globe in order to lead it. BHO's international trip will likely focus on that mindset, which is one he's expressed before: America is ready to lead again. Nice slogan. Should garner some good will, while we try to dig ourselves out of the Bushco hole. No surprise he's got a major speech planned in Germany. Germany's a lynchpin in the Russo-EU relationship. One can only hope that the idea of cooperating with other nations--say, alternative energy with the EU; nuclear weapons security and reduction with Russia--will be a better draw for America than Walnuts' Big Stick aspirations.

One more thing:

At the top of the list is ensuring national security, followed by creating the foreign conditions needed to modernize Russia and protect its economic rights.

Hasn't this been Russia's goal since--ohhh--the dawn of the 20th Century? Keep chasing that dream, Russia. You'll always be the Can't Get Right of nations to us.