Is there anyone in the region actually intimidated by Vlad Putin? Poland signed a missile defense agreement at long last. Lithuania's president is a noted hardass (and a serious thinker; here's his speech to the London School of Economics in February). Putin can bluster about countries making themselves into targets, but the biggest thing he/Medvedev have threatened lately is Moldova.
Said Medvedev to the Moldovan president:
After the Georgian leadership lost their marbles, as they say, all the problems got worse and a military conflict erupted [...]
The dispute between Transdniestrian separatists and the Moldovan central government was identified as Second Most Likely to Feel the Putin by Joshua Kucera in Slate:
The conflict in Transdniestria has been frozen for some time, and there's not much at stake in Moldova, but if the situation heated up, the United States and Russia would definitely take opposing sides, and in the post-South Ossetia world, who knows?
Indeed; good news for cartographers, though.
As for losing marbles, Putin now believes that the West arranged for the Georgian aggression in order to boost the McCain candidacy (and to remind McCain what country Putin is from). Here's Putin in the WaPo:
When the CNN correspondent, Matthew Chance, expressed skepticism, Putin argued that the Bush administration faced difficulties in the Middle East and Afghanistan, as well as economic difficulties.
"A small, victorious war is needed," Putin said. "And if you don't succeed, it's possible to shift the blame on us, turn us into the enemy against the backdrop of rah-rah patriotism to rally the country again around certain political forces. I am surprised that you are surprised at what I say. It's obvious."
To summarize: Moldova is the largest thing Putin's willing to threaten; Putin is slowly becoming deranged on CNN. Is there cause for alarm here? To my mind, the best indicator that the past month's media hyperventilation about the New Cold War is meaningless is that David Brooks thinks it's for real: from PBS, after watching BillyClint in Denver:
MARK SHIELDS: [...] People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than the example of our power.
DAVID BROOKS: Not sure Vladimir Putin will be impressed by the power of our example or Ahmadinejad, but it's a nice formulation.
This is the benchmark by which we judge serious foreign policy difficulties: if Brooks is afraid, ignore it. If Brooks is for it, watch out.
By this standard, let us confidently assume that just as Putin has no intention of leaving Ossetia and Abkhazia, he also has no interest in adding a half-dozen wannabe-states to the roster of cranky part-Russian regions. No Nagorno-Karabakh, no second Dagestan, no Transdniestr. Let's see if we can get Putin out of Poti, and stop wetting the bed about What Happens Next...
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