Purveyors of finer speculative products since 2008; specializing in literate guesswork, slipshod argument, future games und so weiter

Showing posts with label CrystalBallin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CrystalBallin. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Hazards of guessing...


Russian tanks have cut Georgia in half. This is one of the hazards of guessing.

The "democracy agenda" forced Putin's hand. We're expanding NATO, sending anti-ballistic missile batteries to Poland and the Czech Republic, and we were training Georgian troops until this weekend. We assumed a Russian military response to be out of the question. We were wrong.

Fortunately for us, the war in Georgia has taught us rubes the lay of the land. Russia believes a sphere of influence is a sphere of influence. Listen to the prescient Ivan Krastev in 2005:
The “orange triumphalism” in the west that followed the regime changes in Georgia and Ukraine perceives the decline of Russia’s influence in the post-Soviet space as irreversible. The only relevant questions for the democratic triumphalists nowadays are how many more weeks Alexander Lukashenko can survive in power in Minsk and where the next “colour revolution” will take place.

In my view this single-scenario approach is an exercise in wishful non-thinking that underestimates the vulnerability of the newest “new democracies” and neglects Russia’s strategic drive to transform itself from a status-quo power into a revisionist power on the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

While a return to Soviet size and authority is a scary strategic goal, Dark Steer thinks (right?) it unlikely. Putin has had to abduct tycoons, assassinate journalists, poison former spies, poison politicians of the "near abroad", and wage perennial war in his own backyard just to assert control. How many versions of Dagestan are there in Russia? Does Putin need more?

To be more specific, Abkhazia wants independence, not anschluss. Ossetia may feel stable under Russian absorption; a large troop presence there could just as easily invite attacks by Chechen separatists. It's a rough neighborhood, happily cut up by mountains, but rough.

Tentatively, since I was way wrong about the Israel-Syria love connection, I'm going to assume that Putin moves troops up to the outskirts of Tbilisi, scares shit out the populace, and pulls back. Russian "peacekeepers" sit on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, neither of which gains independence. Ukraine's Party of Regions takes parliament, Poland and the Czech shut down missile defense talks...

...Lithuania later...
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Monday, May 12, 2008

If I had some nuts on a wall, would those be...

Agreed. The prospect of this John McCain winning the presidency is laughable. The one who tours a Baghdad market, proclaims it safe, whereupon it is swiftly carbombed; the McCain who can't tell the difference between the Sunni Islamic State of Iraq and the Shiite Mehdi Army; the McCain whose strictly pro-business position on immigration will doom his party, this McCain will lose.

But I can't help but think that only people who pay too much attention to the game see this kind of thing happening. I find it far more likely that most voters -- call them what you will, the people who purportedly cling to Guns and Religion: "downscale whites," the Axl Roses -- haven't tuned in yet. They woke up when the nightly news claimed they were being dissed by some Ivy-league half-foreigner candidate at a gay-folks kaffeeklatsch. But they've been asleep since.

(I'd like to think that's why HRC has a double-digit lead in West Virginia: folks paid attention to the Ohio primary and haven't had a reason to follow anything since. Are the stories of Hillary's imminent demise actually not on the air in the Wild, Wonderful? Why was Monday the second total time BHO has visited the state? This makes me crazy. West Virginia is Indiana on stilts. Use the template of small-format speeches and massive student turnout at the state universities. If Barry contested even Morgantown, he'd pull within six, right?)

So McCain's chances depend on which McCain shows up in the media at the last possible instant. Joe Lieberman's 1988 Senate run offers some relevant instruction. Joe ran as a Reagan Democrat against the liberal Republican Lowell P. Weicker; he wasted Weicker for not supporting Reagan's invasion of Grenada and bombing of Libya; he picked up support from William F. Buckley; he dissed LPW for missing votes, ran goofy cartoon attack ads of Lowell as a sleeping bear. A screwy confusing campaign. But the fundamental point was this: Lieberman said Weicker was not a maverick, but a misfit. In effect, the Democrat did ideological housecleaning for his opponents. No Republican in 1988 wanted to seat on their side of the aisle the only GOP Senator to call for a boycott of the South African Apartheid regime. The net effect was that the Connecticut GOP (like everywhere else) swung to the right, and the Democrats only gained seats by seating conservatives.

Which McCain shows up in the media? Maverick or Misfit? More importantly for our futures bidness, which would be the preferred outcome for Obama Democrats? (Let's ignore the fact that no one knows what an Obama Democrat is. I think we ODs are post-grad educated Northeasterners-Rustbelters who are willing to "diss partisan politics to get a gig," thanks Martin Sheen. But discuss amongst yourselves.) After McGovern purged the party (part by accident; he sure didn't intend to lose urban whites in the Northeast), McGovernism became the default Democratic position for a generation: mercy for the underclass, negotiate for peace. McCain's ability to draw support from the moderates of 2006 is a boon to the ODs.

Check it: the Democrats elected to the House in 2006 got in because two camps of opinion about the Iraq War shook hands: "I don't think we should be there," and "I think we should win." As an OD, I want the "I think we should win," camp to bolt, because their ideology is transparently bogus. They do not belong in my tent. Frank Rizzo and Dick Daley can come back into my tent, so long as they denounce the Iraq War, Guantanamo Bay, extraordinary rendition, "coercive interrogation" and warrantless eavesdropping. Five points of light. My tent might be 20 percent of the electorate, but at least I know who's in it. The numbers come later. The whole point is to align party and ideology in your own camp, and disorient party and ideology in the opposition.

And Walnuts makes that real easy: right now he's got free-traders and protectionists, comprehenisvists and Minutemen, dudes hung out to dry on the end of the "surge" and dudes who want war with Iran yesterday, fiscal conservatives who hate giving atropine to the economy over and over again and reps whose constituents are losing their homes. It's not a Big Tent. It's a total clusterfuck.

That is the outcome of "McCain is a Maverick." But his biggest problem this week is convincing people that Toby Ziegler and Josh Lyman heard him wrong, he definitely voted for the guy who gave him le shaft royale in SC. Problems occur for McCain when "McCain is a Misfit." On the reel f'reel. If McCain doesn't belong in his own party, how can he be trusted? If the Misfit is the standard-bearer, well, what does the party believe? If it's just an aggregate of fractious interests, what did the McCain Democrats sign up for?
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Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Seal the deal, BHO

K:

You should read Ross Douthat's review of Nixonland at the Atlantic.

Also, we should email Christopher Beam at Slate some scenarios for their "Obamapocalypse" contest. Sounds like Politico has their entry in already:
Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.
What's interesting here is that today an Obama campaign meltdown is fantasy, whereas yesterday the meltdown was fact. Or at least news...Whither Bittergate? Why was it significant that Barry called Matt Lauer "Tim"? (NBC thought it was about the incipient meltdown, but clearly Barry just lost his Kenneth: "If you leave the entourage, who's gonna help me tell white people apart?") Also, wasn't I just reading an appeal to BHO to quit? Yes, I was! Who's writing that type shit today?

Me, evidently. Nightmare scenarios for Obama? We're living through them: Barack spends a month dealing with bogus guilt-by-association smears. He fails to seal the deal in either Indiana or Pennsylvania (or Ohio or New Hampshire) despite having a 3-to-1 TV presence and a 4-to-1 bank account advantage. Clinton is allowed to hang on and bleed him to death all spring. Barry doesn't see it, is focused on the math, doubts that Clinton would suicide-bomb the party, realizes too late that he's running against Clinton and McCain. Spends May and June in regal seclusion, sits on his war chest. Both Barry's opponents lambaste him on all manner of strange bullshit; watch for the return of the turban-and-polo-shirt photo. Clinton shows up at the convention the underdog champion of the working-class, trying to do right by the great people of Michigan and Florida, blocks Obama's nomination, waits for fatigue to set in. Obama gets tired of fighting, accepts Clinton's promise of the VP. Obama's delegates from states Clinton won are released. Clinton gets the nomination and picks Evan Bayh for VP. Obama retires to the Senate in shame and disbelief. Clinton loses to McCain by 5%, her hate-factor killing off any hope of Democratic gains in the midwest and rust belt...

Barry needs to start a scorched-earth counterinsurgency now, or yesterday. Al Sayyid Hillary al-Amriki has already riled up the dispossessed majority, staked her claim to the heartland, and issued fatwas against the occupier. The Jaish-el-Clinton cannot be allowed to have safe harbor in Kentucky. Nor can it be permitted to import weapons from the McCainians...

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Offense outruns defense

I love this shit:
On Tuesday, Media Matters ran this history of the Lieberman Hack , essentially asking ABC, CBS and CNN to apologize for uncritically passing on false allegations. Betty Nguyen of CNN is the worst offender, first reading verbatim two paragraphs of campaign text:
"[...]Let me just read you a statement from the Lieberman campaign, this from the campaign manager, saying, 'For the past 24 hours, the Friends of Joe Lieberman's website and email have been totally disrupted and disabled. We believe that this is the result of a coordinated attack by our political opponents. The campaign has notified the U.S. attorney and will be filing formal complaints reflecting our concerns.'

Also goes on to say, 'This type of dirty politics has been the staple of the Lamont campaign,' referring to Ned Lamont, the challenger, 'from the beginning, from the nonstop personal attacks to the intimidation tactics'

Now, was Sean Smith chanelling Abe Ribicoff there? That started life as "gestapo tactics," right?
'and offensive displays to these coordinated efforts to disable our website.'

...then Nguyen gives it the full Hindenburg:
"Basically, the situation is: Joseph Lieberman is saying that his website was hacked and that there are major problems with it. People can't even access it, especially on voting day. Today is the primary.[...]"

and delivering the coup-de-grace, emphasis mine:

"And Ned Lamont, as you well would assume, says he has nothing to do with it. There's no tampering of the website. So, we'll see."

CNN clearly did Lieberman a solid by passing along the attack, but what I love is the "all thieves also lie" tone of Nguyen's last comments.

As you well would assume, CNN has nothing to say about throwing the race to Lieberman. Here's CTBob's archive of Liebermania.

Attacks run faster than our ability to verify them. This brings us back to the present and to Barry. The killer in the debate -- man, nearly two weeks ago now -- was his excessively delicate, elevate-the-discourse jive on Wright. This emboldened HRC and Wright to, ironically, go on the road saying the same thing: "This is who I am; I dunno about Barry, but this is me." Barry's pimpslap to Wright should have been much harder, and should have come sooner. He knows he has to be twice as good in order to get half as far.

Willie Horton forever! I mean, if only Dukakis in 1988 had said something like, "If George Herbert Walker Bush is so scared of Massachusetts he can windsurf somewhere else," or, "Willie Horton never made it onto any country club, so I don't know what George Bush is worried about," idunno, something. Nip these things in the bud, people! The time to kill the attack, like a newborn wildebeest, is before it gets its legs under it...

I fear, K, we've drunk the kool-aid on the Wright issue. I don't understand why the Rev is a problem for Obama when dudes like Rev. Hagee and Chuck Keating aren't a problem for McCain. Obviously, we're just missing what Pennsylvania and Ohio and Indiana are getting. And seriously, I have no idea what that is. How the Ivy-educated scioness of Scranton gentry managed to be the candidate of blue-collar whites is beyond me. Do they vote for the boss? In making this election about identity -- rather than, idunno, war, recession, water, food, shelter -- we've handed it to McCain.

McCain by 5 over Clinton.

Friday, April 25, 2008

CIA does backfill; so do I!

a brainiac with a cranium packed...
...actually there's no maniac and no uranium here, it turns out. The Inqy woke me up this morning with a for-real terror dream. Syria was making the bomb! No mention of skepticism from David Albright or Mohammed el-Baradei. A senior admin official saying the reactor was just a click away! A grainy ISIS photo from space! Strangely, no mention of yesterday's videotape.

Convincing! So here comes WaPo to rain on the parade: another senior admin official says nobody thought this was legitimate information:
At the same time, a senior U.S. official acknowledged that the U.S. intelligence experts had formally assigned only "low confidence" to the possibility that the site was at the heart of a Syrian nuclear weapons program, because it lacked basic components such as a reprocessing plant.

Since we can't both be right here, and since Israel seems to want a land-for-peace deal with Assad, the September bombing and the current flurry of flaky data are clearly functions of inter-agency squabbling, no? Senior intelligence officials in favor of preemptive strikes against fantasy targets are undercutting their colleagues, indeed undercutting Israeli foreign policy. Clearly, the original story is backwards: what the CIA's presentation to Congress suggests is that in September, we got the satellite pics to Israel and leaned on them to make a surgical strike. What does "they asked for no green light" mean? It means preemption was our idea.

So, predictions are easy to come by at this point. Within the month, let's say, Olmert and Assad will sign an historic peace agreement, and Tzipi Livni will make plain that Israel didn't want to bomb that patch of desert, but Bushites bullied Israel into it.

***

Mad Yoo

In the interest of finally catching up on things I've meant to talk about, I'm just going to print an email I sent to the Inquirer in January. John Yoo had just been sued by Jose Padilla's lawyers for his work at the Office of Legal Counsel. On 15 January 2008, the Inquirer ran his apologia. Reading it was like smoking crack. There's not really anything in this email that isn't obvious to everyone, but it's a start.

Sir:

1) Yoo's arguments for the plenary power of the executive during time of war fail to account for the interminable nature of the so-called war on terror. Permanent presidential rule by fiat represents the end of democracy, and the inception of a police state. Thus the animus against Yoo. If this is a democracy, we can only ask Yoo's defenders, in what sense is the global war on terror finite? And the corollary, in what ways are the president's war powers circumscribed?

2) Yoo's relationship to Padilla has less to do with his arrest than with his detention. Yoo is no Jack Bauer. As the primary author of the now-infamous "Torture Memo" written in 2002 in the Office of Legal Counsel and exposed in May 2004, he argues that interrogation methods tantamount to torture are legal (at best, not illegal), that enemy combatants are not subject to Geneva protections, that only the executive shall determine what does and does not constitute torture, and that the executive is justified in keeping the entire process shrouded in secrecy.

Apologists need to make a case. Does torture work? Does torture work quickly? Are other means of interrogating terror suspects invalid? If so, why? Is torture's efficacy and necessity profound enough to trump Eighth Amendment protections against it? How can Congress or the people legitimize a secret war? How can the executive branch write the rules for its own behavior?

No one defending Yoo will touch these concerns with a ten-foot pole, content instead to cry "lawfare."

3) Since Yoo's resignation, every one of his positions has been picked apart in Congress and the courts. The Supreme Court has ruled that indefinite detention without trial is unconstitutional, even when the detainee is a foreign-born "enemy combatant." The practice of torture has been swatted back everywhere from the Detainee Treatment Act to the Army field manual.

All of which begs the question, what extralegal or quasi-legal acts is Yoo currently defending? If we take the president at his word when he says, "We do not torture," then Yoo's spirited assertion of single-handedly crafting a victory strategy in the GWOT falls flat. If we don't need torture anymore to beat Al-Qaeda, why did we need it in the first place?

4) The operative word may not be lawfare, but avoision in Yoo's case. His work at OLC was the foremost instance of sneaking illegality in under a cloak of legalisms. His defenders need to square his charges against Padilla with the Bush adminstration's ongoing use of the law for political ends.

Alternately, if this isn't a crusade to deny terrorist fellow-travelers the use of a legal arsenal, but is merely typical conservative angst over the pressing need for tort reform, then we're just going to have to agree to disagree. (For my part, I see a right to sue anybody anywhere enshrined in the Fifth, Seventh and Fourteenth Amendments.)

But the question of magnitude makes this no ordinary suit. Yoo's actions affect all U.S. citizens, and everyone the United States suspects of being a terrorist sympathizer; depending on your definition, that could amount to one-fifth of the entire world. We're not talking about a cup of coffee to the pants; if actions such as Yoo's are not repudiated, our fundamental rights are forfeit, and human rights takes another body blow.

5) Finally, I am actually on Yoo's side. Padilla's lawyers have turned a matter of obviously unconstitutional behavior into an open political question. They've given the right something to sink its teeth into. By suing a man who could only be loved by far-right law wonks, and who most of us barely recall, Padilla's lawyers have enabled their position to be caricatured as just one opinion among many -- some red some blue all valid -- when it is a matter of redressing transgressions. Sue the president, the DoJ and the OLC instead. Picking on subordinates is craven. The president is the officer with a constitutional duty to discharge; he was either derelict in his management of the executive branch, or was brazenly flouting the law. Sue him.

In fact, this is the only avenue of defense likely to yield a positive result for Professor Yoo. Should he express interest in retaining my services, please forward my email to him.

Yours,
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Monday, April 14, 2008

The recent hullabaloo over "Bittergate" seems to me indicative of exactly why we won't see good ol' Al Gore stepping into the ring. Gore's had a lot to say about the smallness of our politics. He actually sounds a lot like BarryHussein when he talks about it. But this just seems to be a perfect example of it. Seize on one inconsequential comment and blow it up to gigantic proportions.

How dare he look down on us?!

Is he an elitist?

Is he a Marxist?!

(Joe Lieberman is scum, by the way. Not that any of us needed reminding. But I'd be remiss if I didn't say it.)

And soon this will blow over. The media and various camps will try to hold onto it, just like they've done with the Wright "controversy." But it will fade in importance unless he very quickly follows it up with some equally maladroit phrasing. If Hillary wins in PA, "Bittergate" will enjoy a brief resurgence before being put to rest by an Obama victory in North Carolina. The Republicans will try to make some hay out of it in the fall, but hopefully the Obama team will have come up with a way to put the kibosh on it. He weathered the Wright storm, he'll make it through this one.

So, political future... Crystal Ballin'... what to look for? I'm gonna step out past the nomination battle. The abortion question gets raised. Repubs will say BarryHussein voted against making doctors save born-alive babies from botched abortions. We get the shots of protestors with their ugly signs. Maybe a special here or there on some one-armed kid that was the result of a botched abortion. Shots of a little blonde girl plunking away on a piano with her one arm. Et cetera. BarryHussein gives a speech on abortion in America. Balanced, reasoned. Tamps down controversy. I think this is actually the way he should approach these things. Organize rallies in response to "gaffes." Speak plainly and openly about the issues that trouble us so much as a culture. Make it simple and plain. And press the shit out of the media to cover them.

Eh. So, hubbub over abortion sometime in the fall. Of course. I'm still not afraid. I've my apprehensions and anxieties, yes, of course. But I'm not afraid. I don't think the other side realizes precisely what's going on this time around. There's the possibility of a grand realignment. Stark differences between the two candidates this time around. One for continuing the war as long as it takes. The other for ending it in a responsible manner. ("Responsible manner": look for that to be a key phrase in the Obama pitch. Talk of meetings and UN and regional responsibility.) One for expanding military spending to four percent of GDP, the other for rebuilding the American infrastructure. (I hope to GOD this is a central part of the Obama pitch. Reinvestment in infrastructure will create jobs and deliver a remarkable return on investment. If we put it right, this will sell hugely.) We'll have a clear contrast, and I think the American people will pick the side that's telling them they'll bring the troops home and give folks jobs.

More later.