SOFA King

U.S. and Iraqi negotiators have abandoned efforts to conclude a comprehensive agreement governing the long-term status of U.S troops in Iraq before the end of the Bush presidency, according to senior U.S. officials, effectively leaving talks over an extended U.S. military presence there to the next administration.

This lovely little bit of clusterfuckery brought to you by the letters M, F, and DOOM. Now what to make of this? Coup for BHO? Possibly. The disintegration of the SOFA could be played a number of ways:

Bushco could say it's a validation of not just the surge, but the original invasion of Iraq, in that this fledgling new government is flexing its muscles. This Iraq would obviously be on its way to being a beacon of democracy and a strong US ally in a vital area of the world. Basically you say we don't want to stay there any longer than the Iraqis want us. Drop some line about remaining troops being withdrawn in accordance with security blah blah blah and the whole time hook and crook your way into making sure those permanent bases stay, well, permanent.

Walnuts could say it's a validation of his surge policy, in that the Iraqi government--given the necessary breathing room to actually operate--can now begin the arduous tasks of blah blah blah see, I didn't really mean a hundred years.

Both of these, though, really run counter to the Bushco goals, don't they? That whole permanent strategic fixture helping to surround China, thumb our noses at Russia, and secure that black gold for ages to come? Bit hard when the Iraqis are so rudely rejecting our magnanimous offer of American boots on the ground until the Second Coming, eh?

So Bushco et al play this down as much as possible. Acknowledge it as a sign of progress but blah blah troop levels will be determined by the facts on the ground and we will not sacrifice American security for yadda yadda.

BHO, though, due to the Reaganesque teflon on his semantics, gets to win this point, so long as he plays it right. I say he parries any of Walnuts' predictable "we'd've suffered defeat if we'd've listened to him" attacks and talks about the future. (Suitable, that, since it was Walnuts' own response to BHO's "I wouldn've gotten us into this mess in the first place") He's already using the point to press the need for withdrawal. How hard does one press this, though? There's boons and pitfalls for all sides in this one. Should be interesting to watch play out.

Sunshine and freer time, kiddies. More later.